Distillation
Teacher quality, student cost, and a confidence router
What is distillation?
Lab honesty
Serving mode
Portfolio tradeoff (baseline student)
Confidence calibration lab
Accuracy asks whether an answer is right. Calibration asks whether “80% confident” is right about 80% of the time. A router depends on both.
At threshold 0.70, the student keeps 6/8 cases. The colored bar is mean confidence; the vertical marker is observed accuracy. This tiny fixture illustrates the metric, not a production calibration claim.
Inspect one sample
A bat and a ball cost $1.10. Bat costs $1 more than the ball. Ball cost?
Gold: $0.05
Student confidence: 88%
$0.10
cost 1 · 80 ms · student only
Miss: bad calibration sends hard items to the student, or the student simply lacks capacity. Raise threshold or improve distillation data.
Active mode rollup (Router cascade)
Why this matters for products
Frontier models set quality; economics often force a smaller model on the hot path. Distillation plus routing is how teams keep most of the quality without paying teacher prices on every easy request. Measure both accuracy and spend.
- Failure modes: overconfident student (silent wrong answers), underconfident student (everything escalates), stale teacher labels after a model upgrade.
- Product pairing: use cheap students for high-volume paths; reserve teacher/reasoning tiers for hard multi-step work (see Models routing advice).
See also
Key Insight
Check your understanding
1/4What is knowledge distillation?
Sources, scope & review statusVerified Jul 29, 2026
Claims this lesson makes
- Stable conceptA confidence-routed cascade is only trustworthy when confidence calibration is measured, not assumed.
Primary reading
Next content review: 2027-07-29. Source links establish the lesson's claims; interactive numbers remain labeled simulations unless explicitly identified as measured data.